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Posts Tagged ‘Donald Trump’

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INTRO:

In the past we have had superheroes who flew, who possessed amazing strength, astounding agility, could stretch and duplicate.  Superman, Spiderman, Batman & Captain America were the heroes we read about in comic books, fantasy universes superimposed over our own real world.

Today though, we need a new hero.  One firmly rooted in reality and our world, because our foe is the politician who lives in a fantasy world, a fantasy world that he is trying to impose upon our own.  And, if successful, will usher in a time of pain and suffering upon the innocents, and will wreck this once great country.

His tool for accomplishing this goal?  The lie.  And, thus is born Truth Matters Person.  Unlike most prior superheroes, Truth Matters Person has no set age or sex or gender identity or race or religion.  Truth Matters Person consists of everyday people who look for and do not turn away from truth, and then are not afraid to tell that truth to all.

All of these stories contain only part of the truth, a necessity in order to achieve brevity.  However, at the end of each there will be links to the more complete truth.  Also, all words spoken by Trump in these stories are actual quotes from his tweets and his speeches.

Episode 1:   The Dangerous Hordes of Refugees

2ff1cd0ecda4a9a2b839be9fb4611b56“Refugees from Syria are now pouring into our great country. Who knows who they are – some could be ISIS. Is our president insane?”  “Refugees from Syria over 10k plus more coming. Lots young males, poorly vetted.”

No Donald.  The truth of the matter is that we do not take in many refugees at all asian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001compared to other countries.  Canada has taken in 32,400 for example.  And this is out of 4.9 million Syrian refugees.

Of those that the United States has taken in, 72% are either women or children under the age of 14.

22868475614_e0f545173a_bBut, but, but the vetting, there is no vetting.   “Altogether, under the Clinton plan, you’d be admitting hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Middle East with no system to vet them…”

I’m glad you brought that up Donald.  The truth of the matter is that we have an extremely asian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001thorough vetting system for refugees, more thorough than any other in the world.   It takes on average 18 to 24 months for a refugee to go through this process.

It starts with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees interviewing and checking refugees and deciding which ones should be forwarded to the US as a potential refugee for the United States.  From there, the refugee has to pass numerous interviews from several agencies, their biometric data collected and checked against several security and law enforcement data bases, more interviews, and more checks.  During this process the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, the Defense Department,  U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services,  Department of State, and the National Counterterrorism Center check their identity and backgrounds against several databases.

The link provided below by Natasha Hall, whose job was to vet these refugees, is an interesting read and highly recommended.  Often those countries that many are claiming do not have enough documentation –  such as Iraq and Syria –  do have more than enough to properly check people out.  And, if there is not enough documentation on a particular candidate, then that person does not get through.

Further, there are medical evaluations done, and towards the end of the process, the refugees have to attend a Cultural Orientation to teach them about practices and customs here in the United States.  By the way, once in, they are not just let loose.  Instead, various different agencies whose purpose is to help the refugee settle in and find jobs meet them and guide them during this initial period.

zap

c07c45_61a2c43deb564d6fa3857650cbe3858f.jpg_srz_1903_1269_85_22_0.50_1.20_0.00_jpg_srzWe “are letting tens of thousands of people come in from Syria and nobody knows who these people are and a lot of those people are ISIS.” “We have no idea who we are letting in. You’ve seen what happened.”

 

Donald, a lie does not become truth just because it is repeated.  I have already shown you that we do know who we are letting into our country.  And, the truth is, that we have seenasian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001 what has happened by letting these Syrian refugees in.   We save lives, and give people who are suffering and afraid and lost a chance to create a new home.

And despite the claims that these refugees are a burden on our economy, they have proven to be a benefit.  As the PBS article linked to at the bottom notes, they add to the labor market and add needed skills.  As the US News article notes, also linked to at the bottom, while Cleveland spent $4.8 million dollars settling refugees into their area, they wound up creating an economic benefit of $48 million dollars through increased demand for goods and services and because refugees start up new businesses that hire people.

As for the danger they pose, so far there have been no fatal attacks by any Syrian refugee in the United States.  As the Atlantic article notes, also linked to at the bottom,  over the last 40 years the United States has accepted 3.25 million refugees.  Only 20 of them have been convicted of attempting or committing terrorist acts in the United States.  Further, only three Americans have been killed in attacks by refugees, and these were by Cuban refugees during the 1970’s.

Due to our already extreme vetting system, refugees  pose no more danger to you and to the citizens of the US than any other citizen.  In fact, most of the attacks carried out by Muslims in the United States have been by permanent residents or native born citizens who had become radicalized.

The truth is, instead of being afraid of the refugees, we should be welcoming them.  Instead of turning the United States into a Fortress of Solitude and Isolation, we should live up to our reputation of welcoming the weary and embrace our common humanity.  We should be showing the world that we have the courage and decency to act upon our empathy for those in need instead of allowing overwrought fear to cause us to spread hatred and rejection.

Ka pow

And the Truth Shall Keep Us Free!

To learn more both for personal satisfaction and in order to better spread the truth, check out these links.

On the demographics of the Syrian refugees,

From Migration Policy

http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/syrian-refugees-united-states

From the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

http://www.unhcr.org/en-us

http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

Good article about Syrian refugees by US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2016-12-19/countries-hosting-the-highest-proportion-of-syrian-refugees

More information about our refugee vetting system.

Here is the article by Natasha Hall, the former immigration official whose job was to vet refugees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/02/01/refugees-are-already-vigorously-vetted-i-know-because-i-vetted-them/?utm_term=.304f0cda8b00

From the US Department of State, the graphic at the bottom of the article provides a very good guide to the process.

https://www.state.gov/j/prm/ra/admissions/

The New York Times provides a simpler version of the same graphic I mentioned above about the vetting process.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/29/us/refugee-vetting-process.html

And here is an article by a refugee who went through the process.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/i-went-through-americas-extreme-vetting-214703

On the dangers of refugees. 

Here is an Atlantic article about the “dangers’ of refugees.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/trump-immigration-ban-terrorism/514361/

And one from CNN on the same subject.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/29/us/refugee-terrorism-trnd/

On the economic impact of refugees,

An article from US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/09/15/would-syrian-refugees-be-an-economic-boon-or-burden

And from PBS

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/whats-the-economic-impact-of-refugees-in-america/

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With so many political posts lately I had thought to make this one about religion.  After all, a blog titled Bad Atheist should be discussing religion every now and again.  However, instead, I wrote another political post.   Why?  Because, as the saying goes, shit happens.   And that shit is Trump.

This week Trump started confirming my worst fears about him.  While it is hard to pick and choose which of his executive actions was the worse, since he has provided us with a full, rich smorgasbord  of terrible decisions and actions to choose from, I am going to talk about his latest one.  The one where he stopped and banned all migrants and refugees from seven countries from entering the United States, even those who hold permanent resident status.   These countries were supposedly picked due to their failed nature, terrorist activity, and violence.

This sudden and drastic action reeks of so many things – fear, hatred, ignorance.   This action, and Trump’s and his supporters justification for it make it seem as if there is no vetting of these travelers, as if we just say “yep, come on in” without doing any sort of check.   Trump and crew seem to believe that we have avoided a terrorist attack from the citizens of these countries due solely to the grace of God.

The reality is that we do check them, each and every one.   Some more than others.  But none are given a free pass to just come and go without any scrutiny.  And you know what?  It seems to work.

Consider this fact – a true fact and not an alternate one that Trump and his followers are so fond of – none of the attacks carried out in the United States were done by a citizen of these seven countries.  Not one.

Consider this fact too, none of the attacks carried out in the United States were done by Syrian refugees.

Finally, consider this fact, and it is one that Trump’s defenders are making a big to do about; all of these seven countries were identified by the Obama administration as posing special risks for visa status.  In other words, the situation within those countries are dire and rife with terrorism and violence.

And yet, with just the procedures we have now, none of its citizens who have traveled here, go to school here, work here, and live here have committed any attacks against the hnan_and_lian_fadi_kassar_5758bdbd2e3fc99559b93f42d7bf4d69-nbcnews-ux-2880-1000United States here.    Despite being from high risk countries.

Seems like pretty good evidence that we are doing something right.  And that sudden, drastic measures such as those Trump engaged in, are not necessary or needed.  Examining those procedures and tweaking them, possibly so.  Full out stop – no.

An analogy from my own background might be useful here.  If I have a productive piece of equipment that, although not giving me zero defects, does do well and whose defects are well below our goals, I am not going to shut it down to examine it in order to find ways to improve it.  Instead I will let it run while I look at improvements, or even replacement.

Now, if the same machine were to malfunction and we had more defects than good product, or, even worse, someone were injured or killed, then yes, shut it down and fix it.

Our immigration system from these seven countries was working well, as evidenced by the fact that we had no terrorist attacks from anyone from these countries on our soil.  Agreed, some from those countries have engaged in terrorist acts in Europe, but Europe is not the United States and the dynamics and situations are different.  The situation in Europe is a cause to examine our system by using what is happening in Europe to see how it could be improved.  However, it is not cause to shut it all down to do so.  As I said, our immigration system for these seven countries so far has had zero defects.

Moving on, let me point out one other fact of interest.  Refugees are going to come from high risk countries with high levels of violence and terrorists.  If it were all nice and peaceful they would not have uprooted themselves from home and family and fled their country.  What this means it that in using the criteria of not allowing people in from high risk countries Trump effectively blocks entry to this country to those who need its safety the most.

So, what does this tell us about Trump and his administration?

That they are, tactfully speaking, not deep thinkers.   In fact, they are not thinkers at all – they do not analyze and try to understand the situation and system before making changes.  Instead, they are reactors.  They react and then try to justify, often with alternative facts and denial of actual facts.  Think of them as being the proverbial bull in a china shop, only with the ability to speak.

Next, they don’t care.  They do not care about the hardship that this imposes on people and families – on their livelihood, on their jobs, on their goals and plans.  They  don’t care that many of these people are in productive jobs in the United Sates and that their absence impacts American businesses. They don’t care that some of these people are engaging in important research that could have a potential impact on our medicines and healthcare.  They don’t care that their actions may even cost people their lives.  They don’t care.  They x_lon_syriaboy_170129-nbcnews-ux-1080-600reacted and damn , that felt good.  The rest – they don’t care.

Moving down the list of things we learned from Trump and his administration.  They don’t like to communicate. Nor do they like to coordinate.  A small group wrote this up without input from anyone.  The normal vetting of this executive order to ensure it does not violate laws and the Constitution, that it does what they want it to without unwanted complications and consequences, was not done.  But of course, Trump knows it all anyway and so doesn’t need to worry about that.  Which, come to think of it, is why he so often seems to live in a fantasy world.

This last trait, not vetting it (and isn’t that rather ironic), along with not communicating it in advance and planning on how to best implement it with those who are charged with actually implementing it contributed greatly to the chaos and uncertainty that followed.  That with, of course, the fact that this was a bad, very bad, hugely and bigly bad executive order.

A bad executive order done badly .    Trump and friends managed to get nothing right about this.

All for what?  National security?  To make out country safer?

This does not do that.  Not even a little bit.  In fact, it does the opposite.  It provides evidence for the radicals claim that the US is waging war on Islam and Muslims.  That our words about freedom of religion are nothing more than hollow hypocrisy.  Trump and company’s actions have the potential to increase the effectiveness of the terrorist’s recruitments efforts.

I know, I know.  Many of those supporters of Trump would pooh pooh my claims that Trump’s actions here actually help the terrorists and radicals rather than hurt them.  This despite the fact that the reasoning is sound and is supported by actual events.

There are currently several  Jihadist groups who are hailing Trump’s piece of ant-terrorist action.  One even said that Trump was “the best caller to Islam”. Why?  Because it shows that what the terrorists and radicals have been saying about the United States, that it is at war with Islam and has no true freedom of religion, are true.  It turns what had been their lies into truth.

Or consider the citizens in Iraq.  We, the United States, are working with them to defeat ISIS.  But we won’t let them in?  What message does that send – hello, we think you make fine cannon fodder but don’t really want to have anything else to do with you. Other than help you become good cannon fodder.

Even worse, the message this executive order sends to the American Muslim community is that the United States does not care about the ideals of religious freedom.  That Muslims are second class at best.  Especially when they consider that now Christians will get preferential treatment over all other refugees.

Which brings us to another question being asked – is this a ban on Muslims?  Trump did call for such a ban during his campaign.  Add to that former New York City mayor Giuliani stating during a Fox interview on Saturday that Trump had tasked him with finding some legal way to make a ban on Muslims happen.  Then add to the pot Trump’s order giving Christians priority.

While this is not conclusive, there is enough here to cause extremely justified suspicion that it is indeed a ban based on religious belief.  A ban on Muslims disguised… rather like how laws to discourage black voting back in the good old days were disguised as literacy tests.  And if somehow it is not, then it gives every appearance of being such with all the accompanying issues and problems that such a ban would create.  Including providing aid and comfort to the terrorists.

Not good

syria_prosfyges

Moving to another one of the interesting questions being asked – why these seven countries?  Yes, President Obama had them on a list.  But, it was not for the sort of actions Trump is engaging in.   Since Trump is busily doing everything he can to undo what President Obama has done, then why not add countries who have actually had some of their citizens attack us on our own soil?   Why not add Egypt and Saudi Arabia to the list?  Or Turkey?

Hmmm, let’s see.  Trump has significant business interests in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.  He has none in Syria, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen.

While not conclusive, it is suspicious.  Add to that the fact that he continues to refuse to release his tax returns and divest himself of his business holdings, or even put them in a blind trust, and I think we have a grand cause to investigate.  Is Trump trying to benefit, or at the very least, trying to protect, his business interests through the office of the Presidency without consideration on whether that is good for the United States or not.

Finally, despite all of this, the facts and the reasons, the protests and the pain it is causing to good people, I see many of his supporters still trying to justify this order and support these actions.  In reading some of the articles and in my discussions with them, some do it out of hatred of Muslims and Islam.  To those people I can only say go to hell cause we are not going to let you create one here in the United States.

Others though are doing so out of fear and ignorance.  To them I say, heal yourselves.  While your intentions may be good, ignorance and fear turn even the best of intentions into terrible actions.  They are the bricks used to line that road to hell.

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Finally, a short blog.  At least, shorter than the other two.

First and foremost:

dont-panic

Next:

2309

 

Now, big broad dramatic actions, while nice, are not necessary and are not what is going to turn things around.  It will be the actions of millions of people working on mundane and often boring tasks that will turn things around.  It will be the actions of millions of people donating time and money to organizations that work to protect our rights, our economy, our schools, our environment, our nation that will turn things around.  It will be us, the majority, who will turn things around.

National groups are nice, but look local too.  The Republican conservatives who support Trump control too many states, and that needs to change.

Write letters to your local paper, to your elected representatives at all levels from city to state to national.  This means be aware of what is happening both nationally and locally.  Join in local organizations that are working to improve the environment, poverty, homelessness, civil rights, and all of those things that are most in danger now.   If you are up to it, get involved in local boards on different subjects and problems.  Volunteer to testify on issues that most concern you – locally in city councils to testifying before state committees.

 

For myself, I have never registered as a Democrat or Republican, preferring to be considered an Independent.  And early one there were Republicans who I could and did vote for.  However, those have vanished over the years as the Republican Party became more radically conservative and radically right religious.

So, for the first time in my life, I will become a registered Democrat and work with the local party here in Beaumont.  There are other things I will be doing, and there are a great many groups and organizations that you could become a part of.  Here is just a short and not even remotely exhaustive list of them linked to their websites, in no particular order.

 

Americans United for Separation of Church and State

Common Cause

National Center for Science Education

Texas Freedom Network –  for those living in Texas, this is a group I have worked with before and will become more active in now.

Planned Parenthood

Sierra Club

Friends of the Earth

National Organization for Women

League of Women Voters

American Civil Liberties Union

Southern Poverty Law Center

Center for Responsive Politics

Campaign Zero

Black Lives Matter

 

This is not a complete listing by far.  It barely scratches the surface in fact and doesn’t even cover all the areas of concern.  Look and find something that fits your interests and greatest concerns.

And, perhaps most important of all, remember we are all Americans.  We are all human.  Look at your neighbor, at your town, your city, your county, your parish, your state, and your country, and be aware of whatever threatens your neighbors well being whether it involves civil liberties and equal treatment under the law, the environment in which we all share, education or any of host of other areas that look like they may well be under attack during a Trump Presidency.

Because of this, of our shared humanity and identity as Americans, seriously consider even going beyond if things go badly.  If the Trump administration starts a registry for Muslims, register as Muslims.  If President Trump voids the Dream Act, write and call and protest – demonstrations and marches in solidarity with those who are most affected.  If you are white, go ahead and march in a Black Lives Matter protest.  If you are black, then demonstrate in support of that 18 year old American college student brought here from Mexico when she was 3 but being deported now, if you are an Atheist march with and in support of the American Muslims and the refugees.  Let your voice and presence be heard and seen in as many ways as possible.

Be aware and act.   And vote.  Vote in local elections.  In state elections.  And in National ones.  And, hopefully, we can blunt the damage that I fear is coming.  And in 2016 start to not only blunt but turn it around.

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In my first blog on this series I went over why I did not believe a Trump presidency would degenerate into a dictatorship.  What I will be going over here are what I consider to be the more realistic fears of what a Trump Presidency will bring.

I do not know if any or all of these will happen as I am waiting for some actual policies and actions on Trump’s part.  And to see how Congress, the courts, and the public respond to them. However, based on his past comments, statements, and actions during the campaign and based upon his current tweets and actions, his calls to foreign leaders, his refusal to listen to experts and those with experience, and his appointments so far, I tend to be more pessimistic on how bad it is going to be rather than optimistic.   What actually happens though depends on a large number of things interacting in complex ways, and until we actually see how they work out when Trump actually assumes the office, it is hard to say how bad.

 

Race and Civil Rights

While there will be no government actions against minorities (except possibly Muslims), there will be an increase in private groups and organizations and in individual actions against blacks and Hispanics.  The federal government will no longer be willing to fully investigate these incidents and will definitely not investigate possible instances of bias and discrimination among law enforcement or government agencies and businesses.  This will result in a greater distrust of the police and of government overall by minorities than we have now, with increased tension and outbreaks of violence.   And this administration most definitely will not be interested in looking at such things as bias in hiring, in employment, and other such places.

As for Muslims, there may well be some sort of registry.  I do not think that it will advance to actual internment camps though, there is too much opposition to that, even among many Republicans.  But, registration, yes.  Also, quite possibly intensified surveillance of Muslim individuals and groups just because they are Muslim and not due to any real intelligence.

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Just as bad as the registration though is the ill thought out comments from President Trump on Muslims and terrorism, and from his administration and many Republicans.  Comments that will sow distrust and fear that will likely result in actions by individuals and groups against Muslims – protests against Muslims, Mosques, etc.  Add to this efforts by many state and local governments to limit their freedom of worship by refusing them permits to build Mosques and cemeteries and schools, or to limit the wearing of the burqa.  And guess what, a possible increase in recruitment for Islamic terrorist groups and an increase in lone wolf incidents from Muslims due to these playing right into their propaganda and recruitment pitch.

As for gay marriage, that is here to stay from what I can see.  However, crafting and enforcing laws limiting LGBT rights in the guise of protecting religious freedom – oh yeah, that will be going full speed ahead.  Especially when you consider that the Evangelical Christian Republicans supporting Trump are against LGBT rights and that Mike Pence has tried to limit such rights when he was governor of Indiana.  My expectation is that Pence is going to have more say and power than any vice-president in history during Trump’s term.  And guess what, that is not good for the LGBT community.

Women’s rights.  Also not good.  Expect that access to effective birth control will become harder to get, mainly because of cost with it being most likely cut out of Obamacare.  Further, expect more restrictions on the right of a woman to decide what to do with her body, in other words abortion.  Trump has said he is fine with letting it go to the states, which is not good.  Most states have laws just waiting for such an event that would outlaw most abortions.  Even without that expect more and more restrictions.  Also, expect less sympathy and support from the federal government on workplace inequalities.  This, of course, holds not just for women but also for minorities.

Overall, not a good time for civil rights that apply equally to all of our citizens.   As a result, I consider it very possible that there will be a large increase in demonstrations (and a real possibility that I may be joining in on a few).  Also, I consider it possible that strong arm responses on the part of law enforcement and government will become more likely.

Oh, and it was just announced that Ben Carson was put in charge of HUD.  So much for fair housing, for finding ways to help the poor and needy, and for having an effective and working HUD.  Again, minorities taking the brunt of it.

 

The Economy

Unless you are very rich, do not expect good things from a Trump presidency.   And even then, in the worse case scenarios even the wealthy are going to have difficulties.

broken-dollar

First, look at who Trump has appointed to his administration.  All very wealthy individuals for the most part.  Indeed, his administration will be the richest by far of any administration.  This does not mean that they will be bad in and of itself, but it does mean that they are more likely to look out for their own interests.  This is especially true for Trump.

And conflicts of interest are every where you look.  And that was an argument used against Hillary?  Oh, and there is a former Goldman Sachs person in his administration too.  And quite possibly an Exxon CEO for Secretary of State.

This gloomy assessment of the future state of our economy is buttressed by the tax changes he proposed during his campaign.  The poor and middle class will see a 2% or less increase in bring home pay.  The very wealthy will receive at least a 16% increase.  Wowza.  Oh, and that’s not to mention the fact that our deficits and national debt will balloon.  But what the hell, let the plundering of our economy by the rich begin in earnest.

In some ways, this reminds me a bit of the hand off of the economy from Bill Clinton to W. Bush.  Bush inherited a strong economy with a surplus that was actually reducing the debt.  And due in part to his tax cuts, we wound up with deficits and increased debt.  Only, this hand off has the potential to be a lot worse under President Trump than it did under President W. Bush.

Add to the above President elect Trump’s threats to engage in trade wars, and the outlook for our economy looks worse and more worse.  Historically such actions have resulted in large recessions with the loss of millions of private sectors jobs, mostly among the lower paying workers and non-skilled jobs.

Worse case, it could even negatively affect the whole world economy, for the worse.  The US has actually recovered from the recession in much better shape than most other industrial nations.  Many of them are still on the edge right now, and us going under like this could also cause them to also go under, precipitating a world-wide economic crisis.

Of course, a lot of this is dependent upon whether he follows through on his campaign promises or not.  If not, then we will have to wait and see what replaces it.  It is possible that he will not be a total disaster here.  Instead, it would be just Bush bad.  But, I think it could well be worse than just bad.

Although his not following through on this would, again, be a broken campaign promise, one that also, again, was highly touted repeatedly by Trump.  Between this and backing off on the wall and immigration and on prosecuting Hillary I wonder how much of his base he can keep.

 

Education

Short answer – vouchers, voucher, vouchers.  Less money and support for public schools.   More sympathy for creationism and official school prayers.  Now, how far will it go is pure guesswork at this point.  The vast majority of voucher plans when put to the vote at the state level have failed.  And creationism has lost every court battle so far, and the courts are not going to be changed that quickly.

There will, of course, be none of this nonsense about protecting transgendered students now.  Nor support for gay students.  But, there may well be more attempts and support for getting Christianity officially back into the schools instead of being neutral.

 

Separation of Church and State

I expect it to be weakened, but not destroyed.  Not sure yet in what form, although many of the items I already discussed have elements of this in them.  But, given the fact that conservative evangelical Christians largely supported him, that his Vice President if a conservative Christian favorite, and that the Republicans as a party owe a great deal to the conservative evangelical Christians…then yeah, expect some cracks to show on the wall.

Keep in mind though that many Christians, including evangelicals, understand why the separation of church and state are so important for all people’s freedoms.  Keep in mind that there are a great many more people who are not conservative Christian evangelicals than are.  Keep in mind that we are a religious diverse nation, and getting more so.  And, that the courts today and for the next few years are the same ones who have done a basically good job of protecting that wall.

 

The Environment

To continue a running theme, short answer, not good.

I imagine the EPA will become more like the Environmental It’s OK Go Ahead and Do It.   I expect our environment to take a  major hit, with, of course, an increase in health problems and issues.  Not to mention a loss of biologic diversity.  And trying to limit the damage from Climate Change and preparing on how best to deal with it will now fall upon the individual states, cities, and businesses.  It will no longer be a national effort, with the result being a loss in impact and effectiveness.  A huge problem now becomes bigly huge.

Foreign Affairs

In short, as with the others, so very not good.

Trump is ignorant of diplomacy and of world affairs.  Ignorance is not something to be ashamed of though, as long as you are aware of it and work to change your ignorance to knowledge.  Trump though shows no sign of this.  Even worse, he thinks he knows it all already.

index

He knows more than all of our intelligence organizations and agencies.   He knows more than our generals and military.  He does not bother with most of the daily intelligence briefs.  He calls and takes calls from world leaders without bothering with getting information from the State Department.

And he tweets.

He tweets and attacks other countries through his tweets.

Between his egotistical ignorance, his fragile ego that cannot ignore a slight no matter how slight such that he has to fire back at a TV show, his lack of discipline, his aggressiveness, his questioning of our allies and those organizations and treaties that help hold our alliances …. all of this and more make war more likely under President Trump than any recent president.  Accidentally or on purpose.

Due to his policies and penchant for isolationism, I see both Russia and China moving in and becoming more prominent in world affairs at the expense of the US.  And of democracies in general.

In other words, I think it a realistic to see a more unstable world during Trump’s presidency.

 

OK, that’s my down and dirty worse case realistic expectations of a Trump Presidency.  I realized I have not provided any supporting arguments for these, but that is not my purpose here (besides which it would increase an already long blog at least tenfold).  Here I am just outlining what I think are some real possibilities with Trump as president.  And I realize it is incomplete.

Now, a few things to note here.  The first is that all of this is something that the US can survive.  And still remain a great nation.  A cracked, bleeding, and damaged great nation, but still.  We are too big economically and militarily, have too many strong institutions internally for us to be totally gutted.  So, we will survive and can and will recover.  But, we will have to suffer through a lot of pain and tears and blood, and almost terminal national embarrassment before we do recover.

The next thing to note is that I could be wrong.  It might not be any worse than any other conservative Republican administration.  I don’t think it likely, but it might happen that way when all is said and done.  In fact, I greatly hope that I am wrong.

Finally the above is my realistic worse case scenario.  Whether these actually play out, or how bad they are if they do play out, depends on a great many things – one of which is what we do.  Which is the subject of my third and last blog of this series.

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Let me end this one with what I think we will most likely wind up with under President Trump – a Kakistocracy.  That is a Greek word I just came across that means seems to sum up my thoughts about a Trump Presidency fairly well.  It means a government run by the worst elements of society – the unscrupulous and the unqualified.

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I have seen several people express fears about Trump becoming a dictator and the US become something similar to what Nazi Germany was under Hitler.  That we will lose our freedoms; of speech, of religion, of assembly, to vote.  That our free press will become bound and gagged.

 

While I recognize the similarities between Trump and Hitler, and while acknowledging a dictatorship is a possibility, I strongly disagree on it being probable.  Many things are possible, only a few are really probable.  So, given the many concerns I have seen expressed about this, I thought I would first explain why I do not believe it will happen.  Then I will explain what I think are the more probable consequences of Trump’s election and give what I consider a more realistic worst case scenario Finally, I will go over  what needs to happen to prevent or at least mitigate this more realistic worse case scenario from happening.

 

This is going to be a long blog so I am breaking it down into each of these component parts to form three blogs on the same subject.

 

Why the United States will not go the way of Nazi Germany

While there are similarities between Hitler and Trump, and in how they rose to power, there are also differences.  However, more important than these differences is the difference between our country now and Germany during the rise of Hitler.  People such as Alexander the Great, Napoleon,  George Washington, and Hitler come to power not only by the force of their personality or by how they do things, but also as the result of their times.  Put those same people in another setting and they may, and probably will, fail.  Greatness or notoriety do not arise in a vacuum.

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Now, there are some similarities between Germany then and the US today.  Both peoples were and are frustrated with their government.   They feel and felt that it was ineffectual, that it could not address the problems of the times, and that things were getting worse.  And there is a similarity in that, while Hitler used the Jews as a scapegoat for many of the Weimar Republic’s problems, many of Trump’s supporters use the illegal alien and Muslims as scapegoats.  And for the more racist of Trump supporters, blacks.

 

However, the similarities are limited, both in number, in intensity, and in scope.  For example, in Germany then:

 

  • Germany became a democracy in 1919. In 1933, when Hitler rose to power and the Nazi Party won the most seats in the German Parliament, the German People only had 14 years of experience with democracy.   Their prior experience was with a dictatorial government, and that was what they were comfortable with.  Or at least more familiar with, and, more importantly, associated with a government that actually worked.  When democracy did not seem to be working and unable to solve the many problems the German people face, they set up no outcry with the onset of emergency powers and the suspension of rights.
    • The US has, counting from the ratification of the US Constitution, over 230 years of democratic experience. We have faced numerous challenges from the beginning.  And through each one, we, as a people, did not wave from our commitment to democracy.  Even in the midst of our worst crisis, the Civil War, we held open and honest elections.  Our expectations are different and backed up by over 200 years of democracy surviving through war, riots, the Great Depression, immense social upheaval, and all the other detritus that we have found ourselves in.
  • Even worse, democracy in Germany did not arise from the people as it did here in the US. It was imposed upon the German people by the victors of WW2.  Because of that most of the German people of the time did not trust or really believe in democracy.  It was never theirs, never their government.
  • To make matters even more difficult, their politicians had no experience with democracies.
    • Even at our start, the founders and the colonials had some experience in democracies. And we have had over 200 years more experience now.
  • The German people were humiliated by the very demeaning terms of the Versailles Treaty. The war reparations imposed on them were economically impossible and crippling.  In 1923 the Allies grew tired of Germany’s inability to pay these reparations and occupied the Ruhr Valley, Germany’s industrial heartland.  And, instead of blaming their wartime leaders for this, the German people tended to blame the German politicians that arose out of this humiliating defeat.
    • Our democracy did not arise out of defeat, but out of victory. And we have not been defeated in the manner that Germany was, and have never been humiliated in such a fashion.
  • To add to this, Germany faced a disastrous number of problems. We look back to our Great Depression as being a terrible time for the US.  However, Germany had it even worse (something I sometimes have a hard time convincing my parents of).   Unemployment in 1932 was almost 31%.   German citizens had to contend with hyperinflation (with many staples such a bread costing 100 billion marks) and millions lived in abject poverty and thousands of children died of hunger.
    • Our economy today, by contrast, is actually strong. Our economic numbers are good.  Now, the problem today for the US is that it is not strong everywhere, and that the recovery has left too many people behind.  Further, with the changes in society and business – mainly automation, the change from coal to natural gas, and globalization – many Americans are left feeling angry and frustrated.  Yet, most people in this country are actually doing better.  Our situation today is a far cry from Germany, and while there is enough frustration to allow the election of a Trump, there is not enough widespread frustration to allow him to dismantle our democracy.  Especially as the results of his policies become clear.
  • The German Constitution at that time had a provision allowing the President to take emergency measures and issue emergency decrees without the consent of the German legislature. This was supposed to be limited to certain emergencies. However, given the state of Germany at the time, emergencies were plentiful.
    • The US Constitution has no such provision. There is a provision for the declaration of martial law by the President or Congress in the Constitution.  However, nationally, it has only been used once.  During the Civil War Congress approved most of the martial law measures enacted by President Lincoln.  During WW2, there was a partial enactment of martial law- some of which were overturned by the courts and those arrested and held then released. Others though, lamentably, were upheld (the internment of US citizens of Japanese descent).

So, the US has twice used martial law, both times during war.  Yes, there have been other declarations of martial law, but they have been made by governors at a state level and not nationally by the federal government.

Further, while the President could declare martial law, Congress still has the power to deny it or overturn it. And the state of martial law is challenged the Supreme Court could overturn it too.  Such provisions and safeguards not present in the German Constitution in 1932.

  • In Germany at that time it was expected that laws did not have to conform to the Constitution as long as it had the support of two thirds of parliament. This made it easier to pass laws that limited rights and abridged freedoms.
    • The US has no such expectation. In fact, that is totally contrary to both our expectations and practice.
  • Finally, in terms of at least going over the differences between Germany then and the US today, Trump is not Hitler. He shares many of the same traits, but he is not Hitler.  For one, Hitler was motivated by an ideology.  Trump, by his ego.  While many bad things are likely to happen, I do not think Trump would take it to the extremes that Hitler did – state sponsored terrorism against certain groups of citizens –  since his motivation is different.

 

In addition to the above differences, there are some political and social realities which would keep Trump from becoming a dictator.

  • The majority of the voters voted for Hillary for President and more voters voted for Democrats than Republicans in the Senate. This indicates an already large group of people opposed to Trump and what he represents.  And provides the base for trying to limit the damage he and his administration does, and to ensure that he is, at best, a one term president
  • While the Republicans, especially of the Tea Party variety, are lining up behind him now, there are significant divisions within the party. Divisions which would create strong problems in regards to privatizing Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.  Even the “dismantling” of Obamacare has to be handled with care.    Millions of Americans are already beneficiaries of it, millions are on the expanded Medicaid rolls.  Millions of people who would be hurt if it were just stopped.
  • Getting passage of controversial bills in the Senate is especially going to be challenging. There will be 46 Democrat Senators and 52 Republican ones (two Senators are independent).  This means on the issues that are really controversial, there are likely going to be some Republicans who will not go along.  They with the Democrats will be able to block some bills.  And nominees.
  • Trump has already backed off on some of his prominent promises – building he wall, prosecuting Hillary for example. And he is starting to receive criticism for it from those who supported him.  They are not dropping him yet, but they are starting to be unhappy with some of his decisions.  I imagine as it sinks in that most of his administration are not only rich and well connected, but extremely rich, and that they vote to their own benefit, this will become even more pronounced.
  • Those who elected him expect things from him.  For example, the coal miners.  Trump promised them they would all get their jobs back.  His method for doing this – do away with environmental regulations.  The problem, those regulations were not why the coal miners were not working.  They are not working because natural gas prices dropped as our supply increased.  How do you imagine those coal miners will feel about Trump when they realize that he did not keep his promise?   Then extend this to the economy as a whole, and what will happen if, as I expect, the economy goes bad under him.
  • I know that many are concerned about Trump and the Supreme Court. Currently there is one vacancy, which means it will probably be a conservative along the lines of Scalia.  But, that does not set us back any further than before since we have been living with that for years.  And that was a court that gave us gay marriage, upheld abortion rights, and decided that Obamacare was legal.
    • Now, if another vacancy comes up, that will be the time to worry. But, I do not look for any of the more liberal justices to be retiring until the next president comes along.  We might lose one due to health or death, but not retirement.  And, keep in mind, that there are enough democrats that they still can make it difficult to get too outrageous a candidate to become Justice.   It would not be good, but he cannot pack the court with Justices who would go along with him becoming a dictator (although they could go along with many other bad things though)
    • I would also note that on Trump’s idea to imprison those who burn the American flag, Justice Scalia had this to say: “If I were king I wouldn’t go about letting people burn the American Flag. However, we have a first amendment which says that the right of free speech shall not be abridged, and it is addressed, in particular to speech critical of the government.   I mean, that was the main kind of speech that tyrants would seek to suppress.”

I could go on for quite a bit longer.  We have a robust freedom of the press.  I am sure that Trump will try to limit that, and may well get a few victories.  However, there is still the independent judiciary.  Further, if you look at freedom of the press may go backwards many decades, but not to the point where the media becomes the puppet and totally under the control of the President.

 

In fact, overall, that is the more realistic scenario that I discuss in my next blog on this subject; that we will not have a dictator but instead many of the social gains and progress, many of the civil rights gains and progress will wind up being pushed back decades, possible even to a similar state as the turn of the 20th century in many ways.  That our economy is ruined and  taking the world’s economy with it.  And the increased possibility of wars.

 

Those are realistic worse case scenarios.  But, Trump becoming a dictator and the United States a fascist dictatorship, or a dictatorship of any kind – no, that is not realistic at all.

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I am getting freaking fed up with the amount of digital thinking I am seeing today.  I have never been a fan of it and argued against it, but now I am also seeing it creep more and more into the political arena with possible disastrous consequences for the United States.

 

First though, what do I mean by digital thinking?  Actually this is a term I use that conflates two closely related mistakes in reasoning.

One such mistake is the all or nothing fallacy one is either one thing or the other.

The other mistake is the belief that if one part of something is wrong then the whole of it is wrong.

These are known by several other names in works about logical fallacy, but I like the term digital thinking.  Both assume a binary sort of thinking – something either is or is not.  Something is either red of white.   Something either is a democracy or not (my latest interesting discussion).

However, most of life, and especially our social structures and personal lives are analogue.  There is a continuum of possibilities.  In fact, often it is more than one continuum as one possibility branches off and creates its own continuum.  It is why life is often so complex and messy.

For example, in regards to red and white, there is pink.  In fact, there are a range of pinks ranging from more red than white to being almost white, with the dividing line between red/pink/white being a very subjective judgement.

In evolution, a scientific finding that the evolutionary tree of man was incorrect and that this species actually was not our ancestor or that this one was does not disprove evolution.  Evolution consists of multiple strands of evidence with some strands being of more importance than others.  It is not either all correct of none of it is correct.  Changing our views on who our ancestors were based on new fossil evidence is not critical to the fact of evolution since it is so well supported by thousands of other strands of evidence.  Nor was unexpected finding of dinosaur proteins fatal to evolution as some creationists assumed.  It showed, instead, that our ideas of proteins and fossilization was wrong; there was actually very little evidence for our ideas about the possibility of finding proteins in ancient bones whereas there is a great deal of evidence for how ancient those bones were.

The same is true with Climate Change.  Those who deny it like to point to the Antarctic actually growing instead of melting as evidence that climate change is wrong.  Their thinking is that if any part of it is wrong then the whole is.  Which ignores all the other evidence that strongly supports the theory of Climate Change. Part of it can be wrong, but the whole still be correct.

It is not only in the sciences you find this.  You also find it in conversations and judgements about our government and social issues.

To some, if you argue for gun control then you must be for banning all guns and confiscation of such.  All or nothing.  Similar arguments for the other side.  The same holds true for anti-vaccers, GMO, and other issues.  Usually you can find examples from both sides of the issue engaging in this digital sort of thinking.

However, as this is getting longer than I intended, let me cut to the chase.  Hillary Clinton.

I am so freaking tired of having people point to her speeches to Wall Street companies and the donations she gets from big business and say “See, she is not really liberal.  She is no different from Republicans.  From Trump.”

As if her prior actions as Senator and as first lady and throughout her life as well as the positions she takes doesn’t matter in evaluating her.   For the digital thinker, if she takes big business money in any way, shape, fashion, or form then she is like the Republicans.  Digital thinking at its finest – which is not a good thing.

Or they point to  her e mail and say “See, she is not honest, not trustworthy.  Just like Trump.”

As if something is either a lie or the truth with nothing in between.  As if there are no variations of lies and truths, no gradation of truth.  Yet these same people understand perfectly fine when a fact check was mostly true, or partly true or pants on fire.

They act as if there exists a politician who has never spun the truth, emphasizing part of it while ignoring the rest.  Such an art is a necessary part of being a politician and always has been.  To damn Hillary for it but excusing Trump, to damn Hillary saying that her doing so makes her just as bad as Trump without checking how often and how badly – that is digital thinking at its finest.  And that is not good.

As if Hillary’s rating from different fact checking organizations showing she has been the most truthful presidential candidate either Republican or Democrat during this campaign, and one of the more truthful politicians overall does not matter.  She has lied, she has spun the truth, and therefor is like Trump.

As if the mere fact of her doing so makes it unnecessary to look and compare her record with that of Trump’s many problems with truth and reality.

Digital thinking at its finest.  Again so very not a good thing.

Digital thinking leads to mistakes and errors in judgment.  In believing things that are not true.  In dismissing true things as untrue.  Life is too complex for digital thinking to be anything other than an easy road to error.

Were we to follow the way of the digital we would be creationists, we would deny global warming and go full speed ahead on mining and burning coal and to hell with renewable energy.

And it may give us a Trump presidency if we are not careful.

Obviously, this is aimed primarily at Bernie supporters who say that Hillary is as bad as Trump and they are not going to vote for either. And this is where another aspect of digital thinking comes in – wanting it all at once, I can’t get all I want at once so I am not going to do anything at all.

However, progress rarely happens all at once.  It is incremental and gradual.  It has compromises and half measures.  Until such a time as enough changes have accumulated that sudden progress can be made.  Progress is rarely digital.  It is analogue.

No, Hillary cannot give you all you want, but she can take some steps down the path you want.  She has done so in the past.  Her policies for the future contain much of what you want, and the seeds for more to eventually flourish.  She will not give you all you want, no one could given our current political realities.  However, she can give some.

Trump however will  not even take a step down that path he will destroy the path.  He will uproot any seeds for future change that might be planted.  And this is something Bernie Sanders recognizes and why he is supporting Hillary.

I hope that enough of his followers give up their digital views and do the same.

 

 

By the way, as far as I know I am the originator of this term.  If it turns out that I am not, that someone has already used this term in this way, then don’t tell me.  There are times my ego needs a little harmless stroking.

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I watched part of Trump’s speech on Thursday. Read about the parts I did not see, or saw some video clips. The thing that struck me most forcefully is the picture of America that he painted. Let’s call it Trump World to distinguish it from the real world.

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In Trump world crime is rampant in America and no one can walk the streets safely anymore.

In Trump World America is facing an imminent existential threat from ISIS and terrorism.

In Trump World America’s economy is collapsing and almost totally destroyed.

In Trump World America is despised and loathed not respected even by our allies.

In Trump World America is on its last legs and gasping out its last strangled gasp.

But, that is Trump World.  One that he created out of words; short words, dramatic words, emphatic words, words of lies, of falsehoods, twisted words depicting a twisted reality.  All spouted with vim and vigor and certainty. Words rooted loosely in some bits of reality, but made huge, made big, made worse, made lies.

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Trump World is not the America that I see. It is not the America that is see in the numbers, in the statistics, in my daily life, in reality.

Yes, we have problems. We always have. With countries as with life, there are always problems.  And yes, some of those problems are serious. That too is a constant with countries.  At no time in our history have we not been faced with problems. Serious and numerous problems.  Out time in that regard  is no different than other times.

The fact that there are serious problems facing our nation is nothing new.  Nor is it cause for despair and doom.  The problems we face today, while serous, are not even close to being the worst we have ever faced.

I think of the time I grew up in, the 60s and 70s. While today there are definite and serious issues with our justice system being able to dispense justice impartially and being blind to a person’s race, our racial problems when I was growing up were worse.  Much worse.  And what it took to correct many of those problems entailed more violence, more riots, more disruption even to the extent that the National Guard had to be called to escort children to schools just because they were black..

Compared to racial discord at that time, what we face today is civil. And, like it was then, this discord today is necessary. Yes, it is not comfortable and yes it is at times divisive.  And yes, there is violence when there shouldn’t be, and pain and suffering of victims and their families. But that is part of change. It was when I was growing up and it is now.

Yes, we have blacks being unjustly treated and killed too often. We have police being murdered on the streets. Yet, the number of police killed is down from past years. And although we desperately need to correct the unequal justice we still have, it is better than when I was growing up. And Black Lives Matter a far more peaceful group than many others that existed when I was growing up.

Further, there is more and more dialogue between groups that has resulted in change. Not enough yet, but still there.

And yet Trump would have you believe otherwise.

Our economy is among the strongest in the world. We have recovered from the great recession faster and better than most other nations. And our economy is growing. It is not growing for all, but it is for most. It is also not growing as fast as we would wish, but it is growing.

It is also changing, changes that are the result of our growing technology. And change is painful. But, we are not in danger of economic collapse. Indeed, the world thinks we are a rock of stability that they invest in during times of trouble by buying US bonds. Our currency is the bedrock currency of the world because of their regard for our economy.

Yes, our economy has problems. But we are nowhere near economic collapse as Trump would have you believe.

Crime, crime is not running rampant. Our crime is the lowest it has been since the 60s. There has been an uptick in some cities, but if you look at trends you see ups and downs due to a variety of reasons. The uptick in some cities is not enough to say crime is running rampant, or at least not to say it truthfully. Especially since even counting the uptick, we are still far below the levels of the 90s. As for crime, we have rarely been so safe. But not to hear Trump talk.

ISIS and terrorism. Yes, they are serious challenges. But they are nowhere near an existential threat to the US. ISIS is losing ground in the Middle East. The country they said they were going to create is being whittled away. Their idea of a  powerful global caliphate is being destroyed before it is even created. Which is why they are changing their nature to one like other terror groups. They are changing because we are winning there, so they have to change the battlefield.

But the nature of the threat here in the US has not been direct action from ISIS. Nor has it come from immigrants or refugees. Instead it is the lone wolf terrorist, someone who is acting on their own and who has become radicalized. In fact, most of the attacks both here in the US and in Europe are from citizens. Not outsiders, not immigrants, and not refugees, but citizens.

As for the US terrorist attacks, while horrific and we need to take what measures we can without losing who we are in doing so, they are small scaled, especially when you look at what happens in Turkey, Iraq, and other places.

Yes, terrorism and ISIS is a danger. But not one that is going to destroy us unless we let unreasoning fear guide our actions.

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In other words, America is actually in good shape. Not perfect. There are flaws and problems, some of them being severe. We have many challenges and problems that need to be worked on. And the working out of them is going to be accompanied by pain and sorrow, suffering and hurt. But also by joy as we do solve them and then move on to the next set of problems that our solutions will inevitably create.

I do not recognize the America Trump has created. I look at our past and see the present America in largely better shape than our past. I look at the world, and I see the US holding its own with any other country.

And as for respect, respect for the US is up and strong in most of the world.

When I was growing up we had riots and demonstrations and blood being shed over the war in Vietnam, over the accumulated weight of hundreds of years of racial injustice, over women finding their voice and their power.  Presidents fell.  And yet the United States continued on and did not collapse.

And my times were  far from the most challenging the US has ever faced.

I can only conclude that Donald Trump must believe that the United States has become a wimp if the challenges we face today are going to lead to its imminent collapse.  But then, I don’t really think Trump believes this.  He has created Trump World not because he believes it to be real but because he believes he can profit from it.

Trump’s America is not the one I see or live in. It is a fear plagued vision created by him in order to use fear and anger and hatred to win first the Republican nomination and now trying to win the Presidency. Trump World has very little contact with reality.

I wrote this first as a posting on my Facebook page, but decided to revise it for a blog.  The reason is that Trump World bothers me.  In fact, it frightens me. Actually, it is the fact that so many are starting to live in Trump world instead of the real one that frightens me.  The actions needed to solve the irreality of Trump World would only create a true existential crisis in the real one.

Let me just end this with the fervent hope that we will reject fear, reject anger, reject hatred and reject Trump’s vision of America for one of hope, respect, and reality.

 

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