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While Obama was President I signed up to receive the White House Memo, a daily emailed news bulletin on items about President Obama’s activities and stances. I still get it now that Trump is President.  The other day, there was this little bit in it.

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“Today’s announcement of his “Comprehensive Plan for Reforming the Federal Government and Reducing the Federal Civilian Workforce” returns the Federal government to its primary purpose, to provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty. “

So, Trump considers one of the primary purposes of the Federal government is to “promote the general Welfare”.

Wow, can’t tell that by his actions.

However, I am going to take him at his words and accept that he believes that what he is promoting is for the general welfare of the American people.  Hey, what can I say, I am just that sort of guy.

So, being that sort of guy, what does taking Trump at his word tell me about Trump.

Well, looking just at his budget proposals, it tells me that Trump’s idea of promoting the general welfare of the American people consists of just one primary metric – money.  What is worse, it is a short sighted, immediate measure of money.  He has no concept of investing in the future, or of what the future costs of an action might be.  He only looks at the monetary bottom line right now, right at this moment in time.

Wow, no wonder he had so many bankruptcies.

Looking at his budget, you see several examples of this sort of thinking (and during his campaign it cropped up constantly, such as in his initial evaluation of NATO – although now, thanks to Trump of course, NATO has been made current and relevant).   For example, his budget regarding medical research and public health.  Trump proposes cutting the National Institutes of Health (NIH) budget by 20%.  Further, the Obamacare repeal, which Trump has taken up again, would reduce the CDC by 12%, and his budget rejiggers how it’s money is used in a way that will lower the amount again.

These organizations deal with such national issues as bioterrorism and large disease outbreaks. They also though deal with a host of both national local health issues in communities across the US, from diabetes and heart disease, to cancer and arthritis.

Diabetes, to mention just one area, is expected to affect about 1/3 of the US population by 2050.  That will be a huge cost on people and on businesses.  Cutting the research for ways to prevent and better treat or cure diabetes will save us money now, but cost us much much more in a few years.

Or maybe not even within a few years.  According to a 2016 study the NIH alone sends funds to over 2,600 institutions within the United States.  This creates more than 313,000 full and part time jobs.

So, what do you think is going to happen to those jobs if these organizations lose a significant piece of their funding?  Even worse, this money is used to buy equipment and supplies from various businesses.  What do you imagine is going to happen to jobs in those industries if these cuts go through?

How does Trump propose to make up those lost jobs?

How does Trump overlook that these programs are a direct benefit to the welfare of the American people?

Part of the answer is that Trump is not concerned with any impact other than money being spent right now.  What cutting these items will mean in the future, even near term future, is no concern of his.  What these cuts will to the lives  and health of millions of Americans is of no concern to him.  The money right now is all that he focuses on.

The same holds true with is actions in regards to our environment and to climate change.  A new study came out about the negative health effects that climate change is having on us in the United States already.  And this doesn’t even address the problems cities and coastal communities are having with the rising sea levels caused largely by climate change.

The same sort of thinking is seen throughout his budget and his actions.  Yes, there can be cuts, and keeping jobs should not be the primary interest in determining budgets.  But it should be a significant concern.  And there needs to be carefully thought out justifications for those cuts and an appreciation of the ramifications of those cuts, all of the ramifications and not just the money.  However, thinking is not one of Trump’s strengths.

But, there is more .

It is important to remember that the United States consists of over 318 million people.  So, which group of American’s welfare are we going to take care of?  With 318 million people, welfares are going to conflict.  Whose welfare a President chooses and how they go about it says a great deal about that President.

So, what about Trump then?  Whose welfares does he look after first?  And how does he fit priority with all the other welfares in this nation of ours?

I think Trump’s budget proposals start to give an idea of that.  But, just to build up the suspense, I am going to allow a little white space to accumulate while you think and ponder on this question – whose welfare is Trump going to look after above all others.  A hint:  it involves money…again.

OK, enough white space. In case you haven’t guessed, consider Trump’s executive order  halting the implementation of a rule that requires financial advisers to act in the best interests of their clients.  Currently financial advisers do not have to, and often do not, act in the best interests of their clients.  Instead they often promote investments that will help them out whether those investments are best for their client or not.

So, it seems that Trump is most concerned with the welfare not of the common people, not the everyday citizen, not with those struggling, but, instead, with big business and investors.  The money people.

A look at his cabinet also reveals this to be true. This impression is further supported by a look at his cabinet and advisors.  With a few exceptions, business people with ties to the biggest businesses, and the wealthy seem to be his primary consideration in picking them, not their qualifications and knowledge of whatever they have been put in charge of, or of government and of how it works.

So, yes, Trump is concerned with the welfare of the American people.  But, his view of what the welfare consists of is a limited view, a pinched view focused solely on money and in the moment. It is almost a Scroogian sort of view, if Scrooge (pre-spirits of course) had also been an egotistical narcissist.  It is also a concern mainly with that population of the American people who are big businesses and who have money.

The rest of us can just go get screwed, which is what is happening right now,

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INTRO:

In the past we have had superheroes who flew, who possessed amazing strength, astounding agility, could stretch and duplicate.  Superman, Spiderman, Batman & Captain America were the heroes we read about in comic books, fantasy universes superimposed over our own real world.

Today though, we need a new hero.  One firmly rooted in reality and our world, because our foe is the politician who lives in a fantasy world, a fantasy world that he is trying to impose upon our own.  And, if successful, will usher in a time of pain and suffering upon the innocents, and will wreck this once great country.

His tool for accomplishing this goal?  The lie.  And, thus is born Truth Matters Person.  Unlike most prior superheroes, Truth Matters Person has no set age or sex or gender identity or race or religion.  Truth Matters Person consists of everyday people who look for and do not turn away from truth, and then are not afraid to tell that truth to all.

All of these stories contain only part of the truth, a necessity in order to achieve brevity.  However, at the end of each there will be links to the more complete truth.  Also, all words spoken by Trump in these stories are actual quotes from his tweets and his speeches.

Episode 1:   The Dangerous Hordes of Refugees

2ff1cd0ecda4a9a2b839be9fb4611b56“Refugees from Syria are now pouring into our great country. Who knows who they are – some could be ISIS. Is our president insane?”  “Refugees from Syria over 10k plus more coming. Lots young males, poorly vetted.”

No Donald.  The truth of the matter is that we do not take in many refugees at all asian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001compared to other countries.  Canada has taken in 32,400 for example.  And this is out of 4.9 million Syrian refugees.

Of those that the United States has taken in, 72% are either women or children under the age of 14.

22868475614_e0f545173a_bBut, but, but the vetting, there is no vetting.   “Altogether, under the Clinton plan, you’d be admitting hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Middle East with no system to vet them…”

I’m glad you brought that up Donald.  The truth of the matter is that we have an extremely asian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001thorough vetting system for refugees, more thorough than any other in the world.   It takes on average 18 to 24 months for a refugee to go through this process.

It starts with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees interviewing and checking refugees and deciding which ones should be forwarded to the US as a potential refugee for the United States.  From there, the refugee has to pass numerous interviews from several agencies, their biometric data collected and checked against several security and law enforcement data bases, more interviews, and more checks.  During this process the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, the Defense Department,  U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services,  Department of State, and the National Counterterrorism Center check their identity and backgrounds against several databases.

The link provided below by Natasha Hall, whose job was to vet these refugees, is an interesting read and highly recommended.  Often those countries that many are claiming do not have enough documentation –  such as Iraq and Syria –  do have more than enough to properly check people out.  And, if there is not enough documentation on a particular candidate, then that person does not get through.

Further, there are medical evaluations done, and towards the end of the process, the refugees have to attend a Cultural Orientation to teach them about practices and customs here in the United States.  By the way, once in, they are not just let loose.  Instead, various different agencies whose purpose is to help the refugee settle in and find jobs meet them and guide them during this initial period.

zap

c07c45_61a2c43deb564d6fa3857650cbe3858f.jpg_srz_1903_1269_85_22_0.50_1.20_0.00_jpg_srzWe “are letting tens of thousands of people come in from Syria and nobody knows who these people are and a lot of those people are ISIS.” “We have no idea who we are letting in. You’ve seen what happened.”

 

Donald, a lie does not become truth just because it is repeated.  I have already shown you that we do know who we are letting into our country.  And, the truth is, that we have seenasian_girl_vol__1_by_animegamer001 what has happened by letting these Syrian refugees in.   We save lives, and give people who are suffering and afraid and lost a chance to create a new home.

And despite the claims that these refugees are a burden on our economy, they have proven to be a benefit.  As the PBS article linked to at the bottom notes, they add to the labor market and add needed skills.  As the US News article notes, also linked to at the bottom, while Cleveland spent $4.8 million dollars settling refugees into their area, they wound up creating an economic benefit of $48 million dollars through increased demand for goods and services and because refugees start up new businesses that hire people.

As for the danger they pose, so far there have been no fatal attacks by any Syrian refugee in the United States.  As the Atlantic article notes, also linked to at the bottom,  over the last 40 years the United States has accepted 3.25 million refugees.  Only 20 of them have been convicted of attempting or committing terrorist acts in the United States.  Further, only three Americans have been killed in attacks by refugees, and these were by Cuban refugees during the 1970’s.

Due to our already extreme vetting system, refugees  pose no more danger to you and to the citizens of the US than any other citizen.  In fact, most of the attacks carried out by Muslims in the United States have been by permanent residents or native born citizens who had become radicalized.

The truth is, instead of being afraid of the refugees, we should be welcoming them.  Instead of turning the United States into a Fortress of Solitude and Isolation, we should live up to our reputation of welcoming the weary and embrace our common humanity.  We should be showing the world that we have the courage and decency to act upon our empathy for those in need instead of allowing overwrought fear to cause us to spread hatred and rejection.

Ka pow

And the Truth Shall Keep Us Free!

To learn more both for personal satisfaction and in order to better spread the truth, check out these links.

On the demographics of the Syrian refugees,

From Migration Policy

http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/syrian-refugees-united-states

From the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

http://www.unhcr.org/en-us

http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

Good article about Syrian refugees by US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2016-12-19/countries-hosting-the-highest-proportion-of-syrian-refugees

More information about our refugee vetting system.

Here is the article by Natasha Hall, the former immigration official whose job was to vet refugees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/02/01/refugees-are-already-vigorously-vetted-i-know-because-i-vetted-them/?utm_term=.304f0cda8b00

From the US Department of State, the graphic at the bottom of the article provides a very good guide to the process.

https://www.state.gov/j/prm/ra/admissions/

The New York Times provides a simpler version of the same graphic I mentioned above about the vetting process.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/29/us/refugee-vetting-process.html

And here is an article by a refugee who went through the process.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/i-went-through-americas-extreme-vetting-214703

On the dangers of refugees. 

Here is an Atlantic article about the “dangers’ of refugees.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/trump-immigration-ban-terrorism/514361/

And one from CNN on the same subject.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/29/us/refugee-terrorism-trnd/

On the economic impact of refugees,

An article from US News

https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/09/15/would-syrian-refugees-be-an-economic-boon-or-burden

And from PBS

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/whats-the-economic-impact-of-refugees-in-america/

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With so many political posts lately I had thought to make this one about religion.  After all, a blog titled Bad Atheist should be discussing religion every now and again.  However, instead, I wrote another political post.   Why?  Because, as the saying goes, shit happens.   And that shit is Trump.

This week Trump started confirming my worst fears about him.  While it is hard to pick and choose which of his executive actions was the worse, since he has provided us with a full, rich smorgasbord  of terrible decisions and actions to choose from, I am going to talk about his latest one.  The one where he stopped and banned all migrants and refugees from seven countries from entering the United States, even those who hold permanent resident status.   These countries were supposedly picked due to their failed nature, terrorist activity, and violence.

This sudden and drastic action reeks of so many things – fear, hatred, ignorance.   This action, and Trump’s and his supporters justification for it make it seem as if there is no vetting of these travelers, as if we just say “yep, come on in” without doing any sort of check.   Trump and crew seem to believe that we have avoided a terrorist attack from the citizens of these countries due solely to the grace of God.

The reality is that we do check them, each and every one.   Some more than others.  But none are given a free pass to just come and go without any scrutiny.  And you know what?  It seems to work.

Consider this fact – a true fact and not an alternate one that Trump and his followers are so fond of – none of the attacks carried out in the United States were done by a citizen of these seven countries.  Not one.

Consider this fact too, none of the attacks carried out in the United States were done by Syrian refugees.

Finally, consider this fact, and it is one that Trump’s defenders are making a big to do about; all of these seven countries were identified by the Obama administration as posing special risks for visa status.  In other words, the situation within those countries are dire and rife with terrorism and violence.

And yet, with just the procedures we have now, none of its citizens who have traveled here, go to school here, work here, and live here have committed any attacks against the hnan_and_lian_fadi_kassar_5758bdbd2e3fc99559b93f42d7bf4d69-nbcnews-ux-2880-1000United States here.    Despite being from high risk countries.

Seems like pretty good evidence that we are doing something right.  And that sudden, drastic measures such as those Trump engaged in, are not necessary or needed.  Examining those procedures and tweaking them, possibly so.  Full out stop – no.

An analogy from my own background might be useful here.  If I have a productive piece of equipment that, although not giving me zero defects, does do well and whose defects are well below our goals, I am not going to shut it down to examine it in order to find ways to improve it.  Instead I will let it run while I look at improvements, or even replacement.

Now, if the same machine were to malfunction and we had more defects than good product, or, even worse, someone were injured or killed, then yes, shut it down and fix it.

Our immigration system from these seven countries was working well, as evidenced by the fact that we had no terrorist attacks from anyone from these countries on our soil.  Agreed, some from those countries have engaged in terrorist acts in Europe, but Europe is not the United States and the dynamics and situations are different.  The situation in Europe is a cause to examine our system by using what is happening in Europe to see how it could be improved.  However, it is not cause to shut it all down to do so.  As I said, our immigration system for these seven countries so far has had zero defects.

Moving on, let me point out one other fact of interest.  Refugees are going to come from high risk countries with high levels of violence and terrorists.  If it were all nice and peaceful they would not have uprooted themselves from home and family and fled their country.  What this means it that in using the criteria of not allowing people in from high risk countries Trump effectively blocks entry to this country to those who need its safety the most.

So, what does this tell us about Trump and his administration?

That they are, tactfully speaking, not deep thinkers.   In fact, they are not thinkers at all – they do not analyze and try to understand the situation and system before making changes.  Instead, they are reactors.  They react and then try to justify, often with alternative facts and denial of actual facts.  Think of them as being the proverbial bull in a china shop, only with the ability to speak.

Next, they don’t care.  They do not care about the hardship that this imposes on people and families – on their livelihood, on their jobs, on their goals and plans.  They  don’t care that many of these people are in productive jobs in the United Sates and that their absence impacts American businesses. They don’t care that some of these people are engaging in important research that could have a potential impact on our medicines and healthcare.  They don’t care that their actions may even cost people their lives.  They don’t care.  They x_lon_syriaboy_170129-nbcnews-ux-1080-600reacted and damn , that felt good.  The rest – they don’t care.

Moving down the list of things we learned from Trump and his administration.  They don’t like to communicate. Nor do they like to coordinate.  A small group wrote this up without input from anyone.  The normal vetting of this executive order to ensure it does not violate laws and the Constitution, that it does what they want it to without unwanted complications and consequences, was not done.  But of course, Trump knows it all anyway and so doesn’t need to worry about that.  Which, come to think of it, is why he so often seems to live in a fantasy world.

This last trait, not vetting it (and isn’t that rather ironic), along with not communicating it in advance and planning on how to best implement it with those who are charged with actually implementing it contributed greatly to the chaos and uncertainty that followed.  That with, of course, the fact that this was a bad, very bad, hugely and bigly bad executive order.

A bad executive order done badly .    Trump and friends managed to get nothing right about this.

All for what?  National security?  To make out country safer?

This does not do that.  Not even a little bit.  In fact, it does the opposite.  It provides evidence for the radicals claim that the US is waging war on Islam and Muslims.  That our words about freedom of religion are nothing more than hollow hypocrisy.  Trump and company’s actions have the potential to increase the effectiveness of the terrorist’s recruitments efforts.

I know, I know.  Many of those supporters of Trump would pooh pooh my claims that Trump’s actions here actually help the terrorists and radicals rather than hurt them.  This despite the fact that the reasoning is sound and is supported by actual events.

There are currently several  Jihadist groups who are hailing Trump’s piece of ant-terrorist action.  One even said that Trump was “the best caller to Islam”. Why?  Because it shows that what the terrorists and radicals have been saying about the United States, that it is at war with Islam and has no true freedom of religion, are true.  It turns what had been their lies into truth.

Or consider the citizens in Iraq.  We, the United States, are working with them to defeat ISIS.  But we won’t let them in?  What message does that send – hello, we think you make fine cannon fodder but don’t really want to have anything else to do with you. Other than help you become good cannon fodder.

Even worse, the message this executive order sends to the American Muslim community is that the United States does not care about the ideals of religious freedom.  That Muslims are second class at best.  Especially when they consider that now Christians will get preferential treatment over all other refugees.

Which brings us to another question being asked – is this a ban on Muslims?  Trump did call for such a ban during his campaign.  Add to that former New York City mayor Giuliani stating during a Fox interview on Saturday that Trump had tasked him with finding some legal way to make a ban on Muslims happen.  Then add to the pot Trump’s order giving Christians priority.

While this is not conclusive, there is enough here to cause extremely justified suspicion that it is indeed a ban based on religious belief.  A ban on Muslims disguised… rather like how laws to discourage black voting back in the good old days were disguised as literacy tests.  And if somehow it is not, then it gives every appearance of being such with all the accompanying issues and problems that such a ban would create.  Including providing aid and comfort to the terrorists.

Not good

syria_prosfyges

Moving to another one of the interesting questions being asked – why these seven countries?  Yes, President Obama had them on a list.  But, it was not for the sort of actions Trump is engaging in.   Since Trump is busily doing everything he can to undo what President Obama has done, then why not add countries who have actually had some of their citizens attack us on our own soil?   Why not add Egypt and Saudi Arabia to the list?  Or Turkey?

Hmmm, let’s see.  Trump has significant business interests in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.  He has none in Syria, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen.

While not conclusive, it is suspicious.  Add to that the fact that he continues to refuse to release his tax returns and divest himself of his business holdings, or even put them in a blind trust, and I think we have a grand cause to investigate.  Is Trump trying to benefit, or at the very least, trying to protect, his business interests through the office of the Presidency without consideration on whether that is good for the United States or not.

Finally, despite all of this, the facts and the reasons, the protests and the pain it is causing to good people, I see many of his supporters still trying to justify this order and support these actions.  In reading some of the articles and in my discussions with them, some do it out of hatred of Muslims and Islam.  To those people I can only say go to hell cause we are not going to let you create one here in the United States.

Others though are doing so out of fear and ignorance.  To them I say, heal yourselves.  While your intentions may be good, ignorance and fear turn even the best of intentions into terrible actions.  They are the bricks used to line that road to hell.

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In my first blog on this series I went over why I did not believe a Trump presidency would degenerate into a dictatorship.  What I will be going over here are what I consider to be the more realistic fears of what a Trump Presidency will bring.

I do not know if any or all of these will happen as I am waiting for some actual policies and actions on Trump’s part.  And to see how Congress, the courts, and the public respond to them. However, based on his past comments, statements, and actions during the campaign and based upon his current tweets and actions, his calls to foreign leaders, his refusal to listen to experts and those with experience, and his appointments so far, I tend to be more pessimistic on how bad it is going to be rather than optimistic.   What actually happens though depends on a large number of things interacting in complex ways, and until we actually see how they work out when Trump actually assumes the office, it is hard to say how bad.

 

Race and Civil Rights

While there will be no government actions against minorities (except possibly Muslims), there will be an increase in private groups and organizations and in individual actions against blacks and Hispanics.  The federal government will no longer be willing to fully investigate these incidents and will definitely not investigate possible instances of bias and discrimination among law enforcement or government agencies and businesses.  This will result in a greater distrust of the police and of government overall by minorities than we have now, with increased tension and outbreaks of violence.   And this administration most definitely will not be interested in looking at such things as bias in hiring, in employment, and other such places.

As for Muslims, there may well be some sort of registry.  I do not think that it will advance to actual internment camps though, there is too much opposition to that, even among many Republicans.  But, registration, yes.  Also, quite possibly intensified surveillance of Muslim individuals and groups just because they are Muslim and not due to any real intelligence.

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Just as bad as the registration though is the ill thought out comments from President Trump on Muslims and terrorism, and from his administration and many Republicans.  Comments that will sow distrust and fear that will likely result in actions by individuals and groups against Muslims – protests against Muslims, Mosques, etc.  Add to this efforts by many state and local governments to limit their freedom of worship by refusing them permits to build Mosques and cemeteries and schools, or to limit the wearing of the burqa.  And guess what, a possible increase in recruitment for Islamic terrorist groups and an increase in lone wolf incidents from Muslims due to these playing right into their propaganda and recruitment pitch.

As for gay marriage, that is here to stay from what I can see.  However, crafting and enforcing laws limiting LGBT rights in the guise of protecting religious freedom – oh yeah, that will be going full speed ahead.  Especially when you consider that the Evangelical Christian Republicans supporting Trump are against LGBT rights and that Mike Pence has tried to limit such rights when he was governor of Indiana.  My expectation is that Pence is going to have more say and power than any vice-president in history during Trump’s term.  And guess what, that is not good for the LGBT community.

Women’s rights.  Also not good.  Expect that access to effective birth control will become harder to get, mainly because of cost with it being most likely cut out of Obamacare.  Further, expect more restrictions on the right of a woman to decide what to do with her body, in other words abortion.  Trump has said he is fine with letting it go to the states, which is not good.  Most states have laws just waiting for such an event that would outlaw most abortions.  Even without that expect more and more restrictions.  Also, expect less sympathy and support from the federal government on workplace inequalities.  This, of course, holds not just for women but also for minorities.

Overall, not a good time for civil rights that apply equally to all of our citizens.   As a result, I consider it very possible that there will be a large increase in demonstrations (and a real possibility that I may be joining in on a few).  Also, I consider it possible that strong arm responses on the part of law enforcement and government will become more likely.

Oh, and it was just announced that Ben Carson was put in charge of HUD.  So much for fair housing, for finding ways to help the poor and needy, and for having an effective and working HUD.  Again, minorities taking the brunt of it.

 

The Economy

Unless you are very rich, do not expect good things from a Trump presidency.   And even then, in the worse case scenarios even the wealthy are going to have difficulties.

broken-dollar

First, look at who Trump has appointed to his administration.  All very wealthy individuals for the most part.  Indeed, his administration will be the richest by far of any administration.  This does not mean that they will be bad in and of itself, but it does mean that they are more likely to look out for their own interests.  This is especially true for Trump.

And conflicts of interest are every where you look.  And that was an argument used against Hillary?  Oh, and there is a former Goldman Sachs person in his administration too.  And quite possibly an Exxon CEO for Secretary of State.

This gloomy assessment of the future state of our economy is buttressed by the tax changes he proposed during his campaign.  The poor and middle class will see a 2% or less increase in bring home pay.  The very wealthy will receive at least a 16% increase.  Wowza.  Oh, and that’s not to mention the fact that our deficits and national debt will balloon.  But what the hell, let the plundering of our economy by the rich begin in earnest.

In some ways, this reminds me a bit of the hand off of the economy from Bill Clinton to W. Bush.  Bush inherited a strong economy with a surplus that was actually reducing the debt.  And due in part to his tax cuts, we wound up with deficits and increased debt.  Only, this hand off has the potential to be a lot worse under President Trump than it did under President W. Bush.

Add to the above President elect Trump’s threats to engage in trade wars, and the outlook for our economy looks worse and more worse.  Historically such actions have resulted in large recessions with the loss of millions of private sectors jobs, mostly among the lower paying workers and non-skilled jobs.

Worse case, it could even negatively affect the whole world economy, for the worse.  The US has actually recovered from the recession in much better shape than most other industrial nations.  Many of them are still on the edge right now, and us going under like this could also cause them to also go under, precipitating a world-wide economic crisis.

Of course, a lot of this is dependent upon whether he follows through on his campaign promises or not.  If not, then we will have to wait and see what replaces it.  It is possible that he will not be a total disaster here.  Instead, it would be just Bush bad.  But, I think it could well be worse than just bad.

Although his not following through on this would, again, be a broken campaign promise, one that also, again, was highly touted repeatedly by Trump.  Between this and backing off on the wall and immigration and on prosecuting Hillary I wonder how much of his base he can keep.

 

Education

Short answer – vouchers, voucher, vouchers.  Less money and support for public schools.   More sympathy for creationism and official school prayers.  Now, how far will it go is pure guesswork at this point.  The vast majority of voucher plans when put to the vote at the state level have failed.  And creationism has lost every court battle so far, and the courts are not going to be changed that quickly.

There will, of course, be none of this nonsense about protecting transgendered students now.  Nor support for gay students.  But, there may well be more attempts and support for getting Christianity officially back into the schools instead of being neutral.

 

Separation of Church and State

I expect it to be weakened, but not destroyed.  Not sure yet in what form, although many of the items I already discussed have elements of this in them.  But, given the fact that conservative evangelical Christians largely supported him, that his Vice President if a conservative Christian favorite, and that the Republicans as a party owe a great deal to the conservative evangelical Christians…then yeah, expect some cracks to show on the wall.

Keep in mind though that many Christians, including evangelicals, understand why the separation of church and state are so important for all people’s freedoms.  Keep in mind that there are a great many more people who are not conservative Christian evangelicals than are.  Keep in mind that we are a religious diverse nation, and getting more so.  And, that the courts today and for the next few years are the same ones who have done a basically good job of protecting that wall.

 

The Environment

To continue a running theme, short answer, not good.

I imagine the EPA will become more like the Environmental It’s OK Go Ahead and Do It.   I expect our environment to take a  major hit, with, of course, an increase in health problems and issues.  Not to mention a loss of biologic diversity.  And trying to limit the damage from Climate Change and preparing on how best to deal with it will now fall upon the individual states, cities, and businesses.  It will no longer be a national effort, with the result being a loss in impact and effectiveness.  A huge problem now becomes bigly huge.

Foreign Affairs

In short, as with the others, so very not good.

Trump is ignorant of diplomacy and of world affairs.  Ignorance is not something to be ashamed of though, as long as you are aware of it and work to change your ignorance to knowledge.  Trump though shows no sign of this.  Even worse, he thinks he knows it all already.

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He knows more than all of our intelligence organizations and agencies.   He knows more than our generals and military.  He does not bother with most of the daily intelligence briefs.  He calls and takes calls from world leaders without bothering with getting information from the State Department.

And he tweets.

He tweets and attacks other countries through his tweets.

Between his egotistical ignorance, his fragile ego that cannot ignore a slight no matter how slight such that he has to fire back at a TV show, his lack of discipline, his aggressiveness, his questioning of our allies and those organizations and treaties that help hold our alliances …. all of this and more make war more likely under President Trump than any recent president.  Accidentally or on purpose.

Due to his policies and penchant for isolationism, I see both Russia and China moving in and becoming more prominent in world affairs at the expense of the US.  And of democracies in general.

In other words, I think it a realistic to see a more unstable world during Trump’s presidency.

 

OK, that’s my down and dirty worse case realistic expectations of a Trump Presidency.  I realized I have not provided any supporting arguments for these, but that is not my purpose here (besides which it would increase an already long blog at least tenfold).  Here I am just outlining what I think are some real possibilities with Trump as president.  And I realize it is incomplete.

Now, a few things to note here.  The first is that all of this is something that the US can survive.  And still remain a great nation.  A cracked, bleeding, and damaged great nation, but still.  We are too big economically and militarily, have too many strong institutions internally for us to be totally gutted.  So, we will survive and can and will recover.  But, we will have to suffer through a lot of pain and tears and blood, and almost terminal national embarrassment before we do recover.

The next thing to note is that I could be wrong.  It might not be any worse than any other conservative Republican administration.  I don’t think it likely, but it might happen that way when all is said and done.  In fact, I greatly hope that I am wrong.

Finally the above is my realistic worse case scenario.  Whether these actually play out, or how bad they are if they do play out, depends on a great many things – one of which is what we do.  Which is the subject of my third and last blog of this series.

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Let me end this one with what I think we will most likely wind up with under President Trump – a Kakistocracy.  That is a Greek word I just came across that means seems to sum up my thoughts about a Trump Presidency fairly well.  It means a government run by the worst elements of society – the unscrupulous and the unqualified.

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